Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 13 August 2021 (Firm)

Detailed Guidelines for Contributions

Please use the new Google-based SIO August Submission Form to submit 2021 August Outlook contributions of pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent, related uncertainty/probability estimates, and the optional submissions of sea-ice extent anomaly forecasts.

Submissions that include spatial forecast maps, including estimates of Ice-Free Dates (IFD) and Sea-Ice Advance Dates (IAD), as well as any additional figures and gridded fields, will be accepted for the 2021 August Outlook via the SIPN Data Portal.

An overview of the 2021 SIO season, a summary of important new changes for this year, and the tentative schedule for 2021 are provided below for reference.

The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.

Overview of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Season

Organizers are accepting outlooks for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are also encouraged. Estimates of Ice-Free Dates (IFD), as well as any additional figures and gridded fields, will be accepted via the SIPN Data Portal. (Note: for the 2021 August and September Outlooks, Sea-Ice Advance Dates (IAD) will also be accepted via the SIPN Data Portal.)

New to the 2021 SIO:

  1. New 2021 SIO submission form and process.
  2. New solicitation of pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies (this is an optional submission).
  3. New monthly SIO report for September (based on data through end-of-August).
  4. Solicitation of sea-ice advance dates (IAD) forecast contributions to the SIO August and September monthly reports.

1. New 2021 SIO Submission Form and Process

Use the new Google-based SIO August Submission Form to submit 2021 August Outlook contributions of pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent, related uncertainty/probability estimates, and the optional submissions of sea-ice extent anomaly forecasts.

  • An alternative submission form is available to contributors who do not have access to the Google-based form. Please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy@arcus.org) to receive the alternative form via email.
  • Separate links to the September submission form will be provided in the subsequent monthly call for contributions.
  • Contributors have the option to indicate they want to use the same Outlook for multiple months.
  • Supplemental materials (e.g., relevant figures, imagery, references, or further information about your methods) will be accepted as an e-mail attachment sent to sio2021@arcus.org.
  • Submissions of full spatial field sea-ice forecasts (full raw fields of sea-ice concentration and/or sea-ice thickness or post-processed fields) will be accepted via the SIPN Data Portal. (A password is required. For instructions, see: Detailed Guidelines for Contributions)

2. New Solicitation of Pan-Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Anomalies (this is an optional submission)

The goal of this activity is to eliminate this source of inter-model prediction spread. The pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomaly is the departure of the contributors' September extent Outlook relative to the contributors' baseline trend (e.g., the trend in historical observations, model hindcasts, etc.). For instructions on calculating an anomaly, see section #2 in the Detailed Guidelines for Contributions.

3. New Monthly SIO Report for September (based on data through end-of-August)

Outlook contributions will be invited to a new SIO monthly report for September (based on May, June, July, and August data). Submissions will follow the same processes described above. This will be an abbreviated report that will include figures and PDFs of contributed outlooks and very limited discussion.

4. Solicitation of Sea-ice Advance Dates (IAD) Forecast Contributions to the SIO August and September Monthly Reports

Forecasts for IAD will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea-ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons as submitted via the SIPN Data Portal, or contributors can submit the IAD fields directly.

2021 MONTHLY AND POST-SEASON REPORTS—TENTATIVE SCHEDULE
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
•    24 May 2021 (Monday): Call for Contributions for June Report
•    11 June 2021 (Friday): Contributions Due for June Report
•    28 June 2021 (Monday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
•    1 July 2021 (Thursday): Call for Contributions for July Report
•    12 July 2021 (Monday): Contributions Due for July Report
•    28 July 2021 (Wednesday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
•    2 August 2021 (Monday): Call for Contributions for August Report
•    13 August 2021 (Friday): Contributions Due for August Report
•    27 August 2021 (Friday): August Report Released
SEPTEMBER REPORT: (Based on May, June, July, and August data)
•    26 August 2021 (Thursday): Call for Contributions to the September Report
•    10 September 2021 (Friday): Contributions Due for September Report
•    17 September 2021 (Friday): September Report Released
POST-SEASON REPORT(S)
A post-season interim and/or final report will be developed after the sea-ice retreat season has concluded.

For further information, see: Detailed Guidelines for Contributions

 

For questions, please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy@arcus.org)